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Top Tech Takeaways – Companies Have to Spend Money to Make Money
5 Nov 2024
Dispersion between winners and losers is usually very wide in dynamic, innovative industries. We suspect that the intense focus on big tech may have driven too wide a performance divergence.
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Holding the Wheel Steady Ahead of US Elections
29 Oct 2024
With a consequential US election two weeks ahead, we are updating global economic forecasts with all the information that we have today. As US policy becomes clearer in the months to come, important variables could change.
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Which Markets Will Move? US Policies Matter
1 Oct 2024
We’ve noted many times that today’s US presidential candidates of both parties have presided over historically large share price increases. The annualized return for the S&P 500 over the course of the Trump/Pence administration was 16.4% while Biden/Harris has averaged 13.1% to date. This can be credited significantly to the 10.9% annualized rise in S&P 500 earnings per share over the last eight years, not the person sitting in the White House.
Yet US Presidents do wield much power, and can change market expectations, particularly over the short term. The foreign policy and mix of domestic polices of Harris or Trump (presented in alphabetical order) are more than enough to sway the expectations of global markets.
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China Finally Begins to Fight Deflation
24 Sep 2024
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), along with the banking, insurance and securities regulators announced a package of policies to improve liquidity conditions in the banking, real estate and equity markets. These measures came on the heels of the Fed’s first rate cut, which helped to strengthen the Chinese yuan (CNY) and removed a key factor holding back Chinese monetary stimulus. Further weakening economic data and prolonged deflation were likely also triggers for this policy response.
The announced policies are all financial in nature and may encourage investors to engage in domestic carry trades with cheap PBOC funding and relatively high dividend yields. This is likely to boost the A-share market in particular.
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Markets Nearly Price GOP Sweep of US Govt: Forward-Looking
11 Nov 2024
Markets are moving swiftly to price in a different policy outlook for taxes, regulation and trade. We believe the US bond market’s movement is not over. Confirmation of Republican control of the House – and consequent tax plans - would likely mean a repricing of the Fed with a terminal rate closer to 4.0% than the current 3.5%. (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities saw a jump in the expected 10yr inflation rate this morning from 2.3% to 2.4%.)
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Road to White House: Part 7
5 Nov 2024
Stock market volatility in election years has tended to decline into the summer months and then pick up as the election draws near. Leadership has often been defensive in the six months before elections and cyclical in the six months after them.
There are two main ways the election may impact municipal bonds. The first involves taxes and the second involves federal funding for states and localities.
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Road to White House: Part 6
24 Oct 2024
It’s been a wild ride on the US political front ever since the June 27 Presidential debate. More recently, between July 13 and July 21, an attempt was made on former President Trump’s life, the GOP nominee tapped Ohio Senator, JD Vance, as his running mate, and President Biden dropped out of the race, tossing his weight behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
Historically, the odds have been good for sitting Presidents seeking re-election in the absence of a recession. By contrast, when the incumbent party ran someone other than the sitting President, they lost in 1952, 1960, 1968, 2000, 2008 and 2016. Bush won in 1988. Will there be a push to have Biden’s successor at the top of the Democratic party’s ticket run as a sitting President?
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