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Stay updated on key global market developments and Citi's house views on the latest headlines
- Weekly Market Analysis
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- Road to White House series
Which Markets Will Move? US Policies Matter
1 Oct 2024
We’ve noted many times that today’s US presidential candidates of both parties have presided over historically large share price increases. The annualized return for the S&P 500 over the course of the Trump/Pence administration was 16.4% while Biden/Harris has averaged 13.1% to date. This can be credited significantly to the 10.9% annualized rise in S&P 500 earnings per share over the last eight years, not the person sitting in the White House.
Yet US Presidents do wield much power, and can change market expectations, particularly over the short term. The foreign policy and mix of domestic polices of Harris or Trump (presented in alphabetical order) are more than enough to sway the expectations of global markets.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
China Finally Begins to Fight Deflation
24 Sep 2024
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), along with the banking, insurance and securities regulators announced a package of policies to improve liquidity conditions in the banking, real estate and equity markets. These measures came on the heels of the Fed’s first rate cut, which helped to strengthen the Chinese yuan (CNY) and removed a key factor holding back Chinese monetary stimulus. Further weakening economic data and prolonged deflation were likely also triggers for this policy response.
The announced policies are all financial in nature and may encourage investors to engage in domestic carry trades with cheap PBOC funding and relatively high dividend yields. This is likely to boost the A-share market in particular.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Road to White House: Part 1
2 Oct 2024
On November 5, 2024, the US will hold its 60th Presidential election. Historically, the stock market has performed better early on in an election year when the incumbent party candidate later won. Recessions are more common in years one and four of a Presidential term.
The 2024 election will be the first with rising bond yields since 1980.
- If former President Trump is the Republican nominee and wins re-election, that could mean higher tariffs, tighter borders, and an “America first” foreign policy.
- The current top contenders would each be a second-term President. First year returns are typically higher during second terms, but equities often post lackluster performance near the end of a second term as succession uncertainty rises.
- The Senate map is favorable for Republicans in 2024 who have fewer seats up for election. Historically, the stock market prefers divided government and gridlock.
- In 2024, neither party appears anxious to reform Social Security or allow provisions of the 2017 tax cuts to sunset in 2025. As a result, deficits should continue until pressure mounts.
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China tensions have led to geopolitical uncertainty being elevated relative to US economic policy uncertainty.
- Many US voters would rather not have a rematch between President’s Biden and Trump. But rematches have occurred throughout history. In Allan Lichtman’s book, The Keys to the White House, the Democratic Party’s chances of holding onto the White House could go down if they selected someone other than President Biden as their standard bearer. According to PredictIt, the Democrats currently have a 55 percent chance in maintaining the White House.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Road to White House: Part 2
2 Oct 2024
On December 6, Republicans held what may be their last debate before the primary season.
- PredictIt now gives former President Trump 79% odds of being the Republican nominee followed by Nikki Haley at 15%. Meanwhile, President Biden has 72% odds of being the Democratic nominee followed by Gavin Newsom at 18%. The ultimate Democratic nominee has 54% odds of winning the Presidential election versus 47% for the Republican challenger.
- In 2024, Democrats are using South Carolina and Michigan as their early primary states. The winners in South Carolina and Iowa have won the nomination more frequently than those of New Hampshire or Michigan. Republicans are sticking with Iowa and New Hampshire to start. The winners in South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Michigan have won the nomination more consistently than those who won in Iowa.
- In 2024, the Presidential election will likely come down to several battleground states that Biden won in 2020 but have recently been favoring Trump in the early polls. A recent CNN poll in two battleground states also showed Trump doing better with younger voters than in 2020.
- General elections since 1968 produced gridlock a little more often than a unified government with the Presidency, House, and Senate all controlled by the same party. The Presidency has flipped parties the most from one general election to the next. The House has flipped parties the least from one general election to the next (omitting midterm realignments).
- Republicans are from Mars and Democrats are from Venus. GOP voters prioritize inflation, the deficit, and immigration; Democrats focus more on gun violence, climate change, and healthcare.
- The Presidential approval rating is currently 37%; since 1963 it’s been higher 90% of the time
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
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