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Stay updated on key global market developments and Citi's house views on the latest headlines
- Weekly Market Analysis
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- Road to White House series
Discreet Repricing vs Lasting Growth
19 Nov 2024
US equity valuations have risen to 21.8X consensus EPS estimates for 2025 while non-US are 13.3X. As discussed last week, we are quite comfortable with our overweights in small- and mid-cap US growth stocks, but believe large caps are more fully valued for positive outcomes in the economy.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Post US Election Update: Driving Fastervs Going Farther
12 Nov 2024
With remarkably close opinion polls, much of the world was shocked to see how quickly the US election outcome was resolved and how strongly the results favored Republicans.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Top Tech Takeaways – Companies Have to Spend Money to Make Money
5 Nov 2024
Dispersion between winners and losers is usually very wide in dynamic, innovative industries. We suspect that the intense focus on big tech may have driven too wide a performance divergence.
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Holding the Wheel Steady Ahead of US Elections
29 Oct 2024
With a consequential US election two weeks ahead, we are updating global economic forecasts with all the information that we have today. As US policy becomes clearer in the months to come, important variables could change.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Which Markets Will Move? US Policies Matter
1 Oct 2024
We’ve noted many times that today’s US presidential candidates of both parties have presided over historically large share price increases. The annualized return for the S&P 500 over the course of the Trump/Pence administration was 16.4% while Biden/Harris has averaged 13.1% to date. This can be credited significantly to the 10.9% annualized rise in S&P 500 earnings per share over the last eight years, not the person sitting in the White House.
Yet US Presidents do wield much power, and can change market expectations, particularly over the short term. The foreign policy and mix of domestic polices of Harris or Trump (presented in alphabetical order) are more than enough to sway the expectations of global markets.
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How Long Can the Trump Trade Last?
18 Nov 2024
Trump’s victory, with a likely Republican sweep of the Senate and House, has led to aggressive pricing of higher inflation expectations, fewer rate cuts, stronger USD, higher US and Japanese equities and weaker emerging market (EM) equities.There may be further upside in yields and USD in the coming months, but the scale and timing are uncertain. Even with control of Congress, tax cuts and even tariffs may take time to be implemented, with uncertain impact since both are highly anticipated.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Markets Nearly Price GOP Sweep of US Govt: Forward-Looking
11 Nov 2024
Markets are moving swiftly to price in a different policy outlook for taxes, regulation and trade. We believe the US bond market’s movement is not over. Confirmation of Republican control of the House – and consequent tax plans - would likely mean a repricing of the Fed with a terminal rate closer to 4.0% than the current 3.5%. (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities saw a jump in the expected 10yr inflation rate this morning from 2.3% to 2.4%.)
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Road to White House: Part 7
5 Nov 2024
Stock market volatility in election years has tended to decline into the summer months and then pick up as the election draws near. Leadership has often been defensive in the six months before elections and cyclical in the six months after them.
There are two main ways the election may impact municipal bonds. The first involves taxes and the second involves federal funding for states and localities.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Road to White House: Part 6
24 Oct 2024
It’s been a wild ride on the US political front ever since the June 27 Presidential debate. More recently, between July 13 and July 21, an attempt was made on former President Trump’s life, the GOP nominee tapped Ohio Senator, JD Vance, as his running mate, and President Biden dropped out of the race, tossing his weight behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
Historically, the odds have been good for sitting Presidents seeking re-election in the absence of a recession. By contrast, when the incumbent party ran someone other than the sitting President, they lost in 1952, 1960, 1968, 2000, 2008 and 2016. Bush won in 1988. Will there be a push to have Biden’s successor at the top of the Democratic party’s ticket run as a sitting President?
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
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