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- 2025 Wealth Outlook
- Weekly Market Analysis
- Wealth Insights
US Hikes Import Taxes Ten-Fold to Deglobalize
4 April 2025
The recent tariffs has caused fear and panic in the markets with the S&P 500 falling 4.6% in a single day. Our Chief Investment Officer (CIO), Kate Moore, sets out to explore the true impact of these tariffs and shares our findings in a special webcast.
- Shock and Awe
The Trump administration’s April 2 tariff announcements surprised the market with their scale and their breadth. Our estimate is that full delivery of these tariffs would increase 2024’s effective tariff rate by 10x, to nearly 25% - meaningfully higher than the 10-15% range being discussed by the investment community before the announcement. Our best estimate is that these policies would generate a $750 billion increase in US taxes in the year ahead, amounting to a fiscal tightening of 2.5% of GDP. - Tariff next steps
This week’s announcements were only the beginning of a critical phase of tariff negotiation and implementation. As of today, broad-based 10% tariffs will be imposed on April 5, and more targeted measures will take effect on April 9. In theory this opens up a window for major trading partners to negotiate with the US. However, we are skeptical that global leaders will immediately rush to offer aggressive concessions. - Earnings on our radar
Even if the tariff-induced volatility calms, the near-term calendar is packed with equity catalysts as 1Q25 reporting season kicks off on Friday, April 11. While the earnings releases may be history, companies will have an opportunity to update the analyst community on their forward guidance and tariff mitigation strategies. We believe the tone and content of earnings calls will be infinitely more important than the results from the first three months of this year.
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Investing in a Divided World
3 Apr 2025
This is not a normal or predictable economic regime, and thus the regular technical rules of thumb do not apply across asset classes. While sentiment has softened and investors have reduced positions, the policy and macro backdrop will remain challenged. From a fundamental perspective, we think downward earnings revisions may continue and like many investors, we will be watching for any negative pre-announcements in the coming weeks ahead of Q1 earnings season, which could foreshadow a more challenging April-May.
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Credit at the Core
14 Feb 2025
In this year’s Wealth Outlook, the Chief Investment Office is once again highlighting the importance of bonds in a portfolio. Bonds provide core income within a portfolio, and in balanced portfolios, there is a case for allocation in select US High Yield corporate bonds and senior secured bank loans. But at the core, our preference remains quality, diversified intermediate-duration corporate fixed income.
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Shifting Equities Leadership
21 Jan 2025
For the past 15 years, U.S. equities has led global equity markets. But a key message from our Wealth Outlook 2025 is to broaden investment horizons and avoid building a portfolio solely dependent on S&P 500 returns going forward.
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Staying the Course: Broadening Portfolio Horizons
12 Dec 2024
Staying the course is essential in most aspects of life, from business and careers to relationships to education to sports. We believe it also matters deeply in investing. Historically, those who have stayed the course with a core portfolio – a globally diversified mix of assets that is fully invested throughout market cycles – have been likelier to reach their wealth goals than those who have not.
As we enter 2025, we reiterate our case for staying the course in core portfolios. However, this does not mean standing still, as past performance may not be repeated going forward.
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FX Focus: DXY – USD Moves Have Not Played Out As One Would Expect
10 April 2025
As global risk assets see a drawdown as a result of the larger-than-expected US reciprocal tariffs, the US dollar has not strengthened to rebalance inflation risks nor has it found a safe haven bid on global risk aversion flows. Our Head of FX Investment Strategy, Jaideep Tiwari, explores the effects of the US reciprocal tariffs on currencies and the outlook for the global economy.
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How Well Can the U.S. Absorb the Tariff Shock?
1 Apr 2025
In our weekly market analysis, we bring to you three key observation we made.
Auto Tariffs Move the U.S. Closer to a Supply Shock
The imposition of 25% tariffs on auto and parts imports moves the US closer to a “supply shock” scenario given the deep integration of North American vehicle production. Prices will rise and sales will fall, impacting auto dealer and services employment.
These Actions Have No Precedent
There is no modern precedent for the U.S. raising tariffs broadly. We can look to 2018’s targeted tariffs on China along with corporate tax actions of recent decades for some indication. While not likely to be sustained, a 12% effective tariff rate on US goods imports could increase tax collections by about US$300 billion from present levels. For perspective, the sharp drop in US corporate taxes in 2017 cut the U.S. corporate tax liability by about $85 billion. In inflation-adjusted dollars, corporate tax rate increases of 1968 and 1993 raised about US$30 billion. Tariffs in 2018 were even smaller in scale than any of these measures.
Can the Global Economy Escape Relatively Unscathed?
The scope for tariffs and related business uncertainty is quite material for the economic outlook and will result in significant downward growth estimate revisions (please see the March 8th Investment Strategy Bulletin). At the same time, we see “policy shocks” as quite different from business cycle developments and lasting inflation. The US and world economies have not expanded recklessly in recent years. Risks are rising, but the tariff shock may be absorbed without setting off a spiral of contraction.
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Stay the Course
25 Mar 2025
In our weekly market analysis, we bring to you three key observation we made.
This year’s US equity market selloff was more positioning unwind than a constructive rotation. It’s too soon to add more risk.
Two factors have contributed to market weakness over the past two months:
- The release of Chinese AI DeepSeek in late January drove a fundamental rethink of the multi-year AI infrastructure trade.
- The selloff has since “broadened out” to include cyclicals like retailers, financials, and industrials as worries around policy uncertainty and a shaky consumer have taken hold.
While we see evidence of meaningful de-risking among retail and “fast money” hedge funds, it’s too early to know how longer-term investors are confronting likely months of tariff, tax, and fiscal noise ahead. From a fundamental perspective, we think downward earnings revisions can continue. We will be watching for any negative pre-announcements in the coming weeks ahead of Q1 earnings season, which could foreshadow a more challenging April-May.
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Hitting the Tariff Button
18 Mar 2025
In our weekly market analysis, we bring to you three key observation we made.
Market Reaction Has Not Slowed Tariff Announcements
A 10% drop in US equities has not dissuaded President Trump from announcing escalating tariffs on particular imports from Canada, the EU and others. However, with US equities dropping 0.7% on average per day since peaking on February 19, we suspect that a near-term peak in trade policy uncertainty will be reached by the President’s deadline for a “reciprocal tariff” announcement on April 2.
April Deadline May Not End Uncertainty
While complex to measure, we expect reciprocal tariffs to be significantly smaller in absolute size than the 10%-25% tariff increases across a range of North American and Chinese imports. This does not prevent future rounds of tariff uncertainty or “trade wars” from recurring.
U.S. Economy Likely to Weaken in the Coming Quarters
Even in a hypothetical “best case” in which US tariffs are dropped as foreign tariffs decline in negotiations, the rise in trade uncertainty is likely to result in a net weakening of the US economy in the next couple of quarters as production and investment slow. With this said, the drop may not be as severe as peak market fears to come. As an example, in 1Q to date, US small business confidence has fallen less than 5%, pointing to a moderate slowdown.
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The U.S. Economy Slows in Q1 2025
11 Mar 2025
In our weekly market analysis, we bring to you three key observation we made.
Early U.S. Data is Worrying
Data that comprise US GDP for the first quarter are limited to the very early year but have turned decisively negative. We see some temporary elements, but also some worrying signs. New tariffs only began this month and may be delayed further. Yet, US imports– and the trade deficit – have been surging since November, with a particularly large leap in January, negatively impacting 1Q US GDP estimates. This is an attempt to pull in materials and goods ahead of tariff collections. These increases could reverse by 2Q 2025.
Tariffs Likely to Have More Impact Compared to 2018
Inflation spiked in January for a fourth year. It appears “turn of the year” impact may be at work, with inflation likely slowing in February. However, as the exact size and scope of coming US tariffs is unknown, and since the tariff threats are so much larger than in 2018, we should expect greater impact on consumer prices by 2Q 2025.
Growth and Inflation to Face Pressure
Tariffs paid for by importers won’t make US wallets any larger. US employment growth is positive but slowing. If this reverses with domestic investment and production rising in time, the tariff costs will be mitigated. Until then, the “growth/inflation mix” will face unfavorable pressures (real consumer spending posted the largest monthly drop since February of 2021).
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Move Fast, Break Things
5 Mar 2025
In our weekly market analysis, we bring to you three key observation we made.
White House Policies Leave US Equities in a Grey Area
The bold moves by President Trump and the new administration could prove a hindrance to global U.S. corporations that have long relied on global markets for growth, expansion and sourcing. Will the world be persuaded to make room for a larger U.S. share of manufactured goods exports with tariff threats bargained away for a host of aims? The range of possibilities suggests a bit more caution in portfolios for US equities, which is why the Global Investment Committee has decided to take some risk off and reduce our US equity weighting.
Tariffs Hitting Consumer and Business Confidence
While the tariff impact has yet to hit American consumers, and there remains a host of outstanding issues, the fears over how it will eventually impact the US economy is already showing. Long-term US consumer inflation expectations, as reflected by the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, rose to a 22-year high this month while the small business optimism index has also likely peaked.
DeepSeek to Drive AI Adoption at Scale
DeepSeek’s breakthrough isn’t about geopolitics or comparing chips. It allows for lower barriers to entry, broader and quicker adoption of AI at scale, and is likely to support the earnings of leading semiconductors this year. AI is also likely going to help Chinese equities, which is already outperforming most other markets in 2025, and place it back on investors’ radars.
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Globalization Strikes Back
25 Feb 2025
In our weekly market analysis, we bring to you three key observation we made.
U.S Equities Underperforming non-U.S. Markets in 2025
Unlike U.S. factory workers, U.S. equities have been key beneficiaries of globalization (please see Investment Strategy Bulletin: US Trade Deficit, Market Cap Surplus). In this light, it might be less surprising that US equities are underperforming non-US shares in the young 2025-to-date amid U.S. tariff threats.
Latin America, Europe Equities Outperforming Despite Poor Prospects
With deeply depressed growth expectations, European and Latin American equities have posted double-digit returns in the past two months compared to about 4% for the S&P 500. Excessive pessimism and light positioning can cause upward “mean reversion,” even for markets with poor long-term growth prospects.
Chinese Innovation, Competitiveness the Real Threat to the U.S
The surprise breakthrough of DeepSeek in China is a different matter. Chinese firms may still have difficulty generating sustained shareholder returns in sectors with overcapacity. However, China’s innovation in EVs and its competitive threat to US tech firms in other areas should be taken into account by U.S. and global investors.
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When the World Divides
18 Feb 2025
In our weekly market analysis, we bring to you three key observation we made.
Tariffs are Unlikely to Impact the U.S. Budget Deficit
In recent months we have attempted to tally the impact of US tariff threats and also assess how much may potentially be imposed in reality. We discussed how tariff retaliation may be an unintended consequence that has a larger impact on asset values than on trade imbalances. We believe Trump is negotiating all tariffs, but his “fall back” is to raise tax revenue that might offset other domestic taxes. The math is difficult. Even if actual US import duties double, they would cover less than one-tenth of the US budget deficit.
Tax Extensions Will Not Be Covered by Tariff Measures
“Reciprocal tariffs” – tariffs equal to those imposed by US trading partners – would raise around one-third of the amount of federal revenue that would be raised if US federal income taxes rise (in line with current budget law in 2026) and would still leave a US$1.7 trillion budget deficit. In other words, even the massive tariff increases Trump has announced would have to be much larger to pay for extensions of US tax rates.
Consumers Are Likely to Bear the Brunt of Tit-for-Tat Tariffs
Who “pays” for US tariffs? It’s not as simple as who pays the actual duty. Rather, it’s “paid” for by consumers who have to shift their consumption patterns, exporters who cannot compete in international markets, and those who explicitly pay higher prices for the duty items. This change of spending patterns can be seen throughout the world, limiting collections.
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Keeping Our Balance Amid Upheaval
11 Feb 2025
In our weekly market analysis, we bring to you three key observation we made.
Portfolio Diversification and Prudent Risk Management are Keys to Navigating Volatility
Territorial claims. Tariffs. Government makeovers. What is the new US administration really up to? While we remain optimistic U.S. growth and profits will rise in 2025 and 2026, any new approach to trade – with both allies and rivals – brings increased risk to the table. President Trump’s extreme high risk/high reward approach makes a more volatile market background likely. While our base case economic outlook still anticipates solid EPS gains across most of the world through next year, we believe some risks to the US and world economy have risen. Recent market turbulence reflects this, and we are confident that clients should remain diversified and are prudent in how they manage portfolio risk this year.
Tariff Threats: Globally Reliant U.S. Firms May Get the Short Stick
As discussed in the Bulletin, U.S. firms drive significant profits from access to global supplies and external demand, leaving U.S. equity markets at greater risk than trade data implies. International supply chains are a vulnerability for firm profits and the economy if “trade wars” escalate. With this in mind, and strong gains in U.S. large cap equities during the past two years, our Strategic Asset Allocation process has elevated U.S. High-Yield debt as a portfolio consideration. We would expect significantly less absolute volatility from credit market holdings.
Is Gold Destined to Shine?
Macro risks and a return to Fed easing at some point aid gold (see chart). For the past 50 years, the correlation of gold to equity and bond returns over 12 months has been -12%. If there was a negative economic shock that was inflationary in nature, gold would very likely outperform. While we have not adjusted tactical portfolio allocations that target 12–18-month periods, we’ve added exposure to gold-linked assets to our list of potential opportunities for near-term, off-benchmark returns.
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China's Fiscal Big Bang
28 Mar 2025
Key Takeaways
- Previously, we noted how China’s leadership is shifting fiscal policy to focus on boosting consumption and domestic demand after the National People’s Congress (see Asia Pacific Bulletin: NPC and USD support China Recovery). But just how much is this fiscal boost?
- The planned fiscal expansion in 2025 would exceed the 2020 pandemic response. The 2025 budget plans on 9.2% expenditure growth for the whole year (including both general and government fund budgets). Revenue is expected to remain flat. The augmented fiscal deficit could reach CNY 14 trillion ($1.9 trillion), implying total fiscal expansion worth 2.2% of GDP (Figure 1). Incidentally, China’s total exports to the US is about 2.4% of China’s GDP. Even considering external risks from tariffs and US cyclical risks, a more robust domestic demand picture is making Chinese equities more resilient.
- The gap is to be filled by additional debt financing, for which the planned debt ceiling was raised by CNY17.7 trillion, well above the planned CNY14 trillion deficit, leaving room for more budget space in case needed.
- Critically, the implementation of this budget expansion already started. In January-February, total government expenditures grew by 3%y/y, while total revenues fell by 3%, making for a CNY622bn deficit, the largest on record for the first two months of the year. This deficit is double the same period in 2024, implying fiscal expansion of 0.9% of 1Q GDP. The amount of government bond financing also broke records in the first two months at CNY2.4 trillion.
- Moreover, the domestic AI race heated up after the NPC. For example, the Beijing education department is requiring AI education in primary and secondary public schools by autumn 2025. The Shenzhen government announced a 50-billion-yuan (US$7 billion) fund to invest in firms at every stage of AI and robotics development, with an unusually high-risk tolerance for total loss on any single project. State owned banks have also launched or expanded their own AI and robotics investment funds. Private sector firms too, such as home appliance and electric vehicle makers, came to HK to raise new equity financing to fund AI related development. These are likely to provide an extra boost to China’s economic growth, similar to what AI investment did to make US economy very resilient in 2023-24.
- Two-way external risks remain, such as tariffs and the US business cycle. But there are signs that negotiations are taking place, such as preparations for a TikTok deal and a potential meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump.
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